Country: Governor-General's Crisis Situation



Event: Mini-MUN 1999

Student: Mohammad Fakhraldeen

Crisis Situation: The Taiwan Crisis

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The Taiwanese National Anthem


The Chinese National Anthem


The Russian National Anthem


The American National Anthem


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Miniature MUN Crisis Situation: The Taiwan Crisis


The following points outline the crisis situation:

1)- The United States have decided to transfer new missile defense technology of military missile defense strategies onto Taiwan in order to help Taiwan and protect it and "fulfill its security commitments to Taiwan".

2)- China holds a strong position against this act of the United States and very strongly condemns it as it has already done in the past. China and the US each regard each other’s acts as "de-stabilizing".

3)- Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui told U.S. envoy William Perry that the threat China holds on Taiwan "forces [Taiwan] to study joining a regional missile defense arrangement".

4)- According to President Lee, Taiwan wouldn’t have needed a military defense system if China hadn’t taken Taiwan as an enemy and if it "dropped its hegemonic attitude and large-scale missile installations along the mainland coast".

5)- Wang Daohan, China’s top negotiator with Taiwan, expressed his wish that both sides "reduce their militaries".

6)- A former defense secretary, (Perry), suggested to Wang that "China reduce its missile deployments along the coast facing Taiwan in order to test Taiwan's response, but had ‘no way of knowing if China accepted’ his remarks".

7)- Jason Hu, Taiwan's foreign minister, and his Macedonian counterpart Alexandar Dimitrov signed an agreement in Taipei establishing formal diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Macedonia.

8)- China had, earlier on, urged Macedonia to cancel the agreement since it opened relations between Taiwan and Macedonia, but Macedonia didn’t cancel the agreement.

9)- Macedonia signed this agreement in conjunction with a financial agreement that guarantees Taiwan will pay $40 billion dollars in aid that will help with Macedonia's refugee crisis.

10)- Zhang, a Chinese official wondered and raised questions of Beijing’s reaction to Macedonia’s refusal. "We firmly oppose any country that has established diplomatic relations with China to have any official contacts with Taiwan," she said.

11)- "Taiwan insisted on Thursday that new diplomatic ties with Macedonia are firm despite confusion in the Balkan country over whether its government recognizes Taipei or Beijing", this is in accordance to the associated press and Reuters.

12)- This brought up other issues.

13)- Taiwan's Defense Minister Tang Fei said that China’s planned satellites that were to be launched in the year 2000 posed a security threat on Taiwan. Hence their insistence that the new US weapons will maintain the military status quo.

14)- Macedonia will physically transfer the new missile defense technology from Greece, (since Macedonia's as inland country, it will depart from Greece), to Taiwan on board a US-made and purchased vessel flying a Macedonian-flag, christened the "Alexander the Great."

15)- The vessel will, defense experts predict, be followed by US submarines which cannot be tracked by China's defense system as well as tracked by US satellites.

16)- China has set a deadline at 01:30 hours Kuwait time for the US to change its mind and send the Alexander back to Greece.

17)- If the deadline is not met, and then an aforementioned vessel is in Chinese territorial waters, the Chinese have threatened to seize the ship, take its cargo, and sink it.

18)- Taiwan's president has stated that if a ship bound for Taiwan bearing Taiwanese-purchased missiles is stopped within range of the Taiwanese Air Force, Taiwan will consider this an act of aggression against Taiwan and respond. Taiwan's Air Force contains US made fighters but neither F-14s and nor F-16s.

19)- China has put its coastal Air Force on alert. Chinese planes include some newly purchased, Russian-made, Mig-29s.

20)- The United States has recalled all pilots and sailors from leave to its bases in Tokyo, Okinawa, and northern Japan. Okinawa is a 30-minute flight from Taiwan and holds a large US Air Force Base. The island also boasts Naval Aircraft. The US has a fleet based at Yokosuka, near Tokyo, as well as transport planes (Yokota AFB), naval fighters (Atsugi), and bombers (Misawa in Northern Japan). If necessary, all could be flown to Kadena AFB in Okinawa.

This crisis situation will be put to discussion in this conference, and the countries involved will hopefully be able to reach a conclusion that will please all present countries. Thank you.

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Crisis Situation Updates

1)- China accidentally opens fire on the US-vessel flying the Macedonian flag on its way to Taiwan.

2)- Japan decides to avoid being involved with any side of this conflict and, by doing so, refuses to allow the US to use Okinawa as a military base prior to a vote in parliament.

3)- The government of Okinawa issues a statement ordering the US troops and military powers to leave Okinawa in the instant and with no delays.

4)- Japan threatens to stop any technological trading between itself and the US or otherwise increase the prices of new and advanced Japanese-purchased technological products sold to the US by about 40%.

5)- A military coup takes place. The government de-credits its current ambassadors and blames them for the current situation.

6)- The U.S. asks for a formal apology from China, threatening to end cease fire between the U.S. and China if no apology is made.



The Military State of the USA in the MMUN Emergency Crisis Situation

The US has a vessel flying the Macedonian flag. It also has missile-powered submarines following the vessel as an aid in the insurance of the protection of the vessel and in emphasizing on the base that the vessel will successfully reach Taiwan with all its cargo. It emphasizes this on the basis of not having to endure any kinds of fumbles or attempts of attacks on behalf of China. The US also has military bases stationed in the Japanese Island of Okinawa. This base employs sea and air US forces. Sea forces include missile-carrying submarines and big vessels and also aircraft carriers. Air forces include F-16, F-18, and F-21 fighter planes. Each of these has several hundred rounds of ammo and at least 54 air-carried missiles. All the US forces on the island of Okinawa are standing on full alert and waiting to be called upon, (in the case of the Chinese making any attempts on the US vessel going to Taiwan).




The Military State of China in the MMUN Emergency Crisis Situation

China’s main military powers in this big scandal are its big "Blue Vessel", a very big aircraft carrier to carry its newly purchased aircraft, (mentioned later on in this paragraph). It is a very old vessel that has very weak endurance to forces of weapons, and it is also not of much use to China in front of the US’s and Taiwan’s military powers. The vessel carries a few thousand fully trained and armed Chinese army soldiers. It also has a big aircraft carrier. Another military force of China’s is it’s new fighter planes, they are Mig-29s and they have the capability of employing very strong and deadly missiles. China just bought several of them from Russia. They are very strong and they enjoy a very high altitude and a high level of speed. They can also carry thousands of rounds of ammo.

According to a recent classified Pentagon assessment, China has substantially increased its deployments of Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) opposite Taiwan. The assessment, first reported on by the Financial Times on the 10th of February 1999, indicates that 150-200 SRBMs are now aimed at Taiwan, and that these numbers could reach 650 by about 2005.

This information has been proved by sources in Taiwan. A Defense Ministry spokesman stated that "Intelligence information showed that [the] Chinese communists have indeed targeted more than 100 M-group missiles at Taiwan." In separate comments reported by Taiwan's Chinese-language Lien Ho Pao on the 11th of February 1999, Defense Minister Tang Fei put the number at 120. These reports are important because, up to now, there have been virtually no concrete estimates in the open press on the current size of China's SRBM force.

>This information covers two SRBMs, the DF-11 (M-11/CSS-X-7) and DF-15 (M-9/CSS-6). But according to an unclassified version of a just-released Department of Defense (DOD) report on the military balance in the Taiwan Strait, the DF-11 has "not yet entered the People's Liberation Army's [PLA's] inventory." It had not entered the PLA’s inventory even though the M-11 export version of this same missile had been sold to Pakistan in the early 1990s.

Both the DF-11 and DF-15 are modern, solid-fuel, road mobile systems. The DF-11 has a range of 300 km/186 miles and the DF-15 has a range of 600 km/372 miles. Both are likely nuclear-capable. The DF-11 can carry a payload of 800 kg and the DF-15 a payload of 950 kg. Forward deployment positions for Chinese SRBMs are in Jiangxi and Fujian provinces.

The unclassified Department of Defense report also notes the following:

The PLA currently has one regimental-sized CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9) SRBM unit deployed in southeastern China…both the CSS-6 and the CSS-X-7 are expected to incorporate satellite-assisted navigation technology to improve their accuracy. In an armed conflict with Taiwan, China's SRBMs likely would target air defense installations, airfields, naval bases, C4I [command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence] nodes, and logistics facilities.

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The Military State of Taiwan in the MMUN Emergency Crisis Situation

First of all, Taiwan may have some military support and aid from the US in this huge military situation from some of the US’s presently nearby military powers, (mentioned at the beginning of this paper). Aside to that, Taiwan has human forces, (fully trained and armed soldiers), stationed on full alert at Taiwan’s "natural ‘protection-providers’", for Taiwan has many mountains up North, which make the process of fighting back and/or defense a lot easier. Taiwan also has old fighter planes, which it purchased from the US a long time ago, none of which are F-14s or F-16s. Here is a summary of Taiwan’s defense:

- Branches: Army, Navy (includes Marines), Air Force, Coastal Patrol and Defense Command, Armed Forces Reserve Command, Combined Service Forces

- Manpower availability:

a)- males age 15-49: 6,278,159
b)- males fit for military service: 4,849,057
c)-males reach military age (19) annually: 204,313 (1996 est.)

- Defense expenditures: exchange rate conversion - $11.5 billion, 3.6% of GDP (FY96/97)

Here is a brief estimate of the military power of the preceding two countries:

 

Taiwan

China

Armed Forces

376,000

2.9 million

ICBM's

0

About 17

Medium Range Missiles

0

About 70

Tanks

570

7,500 - 8,000

Major Warships

38

50

Submarines

4

52

According to several military experts, China has the full military capability that enables it to take over Taiwan. Especially thanks to its new Russian-purchased fleet of Mig-29 fighter planes. What makes it even easier is the big aircraft carrier, and the blue vessel may be of help since it can carry a few thousand soldiers. As some may say, the Taiwanese "protective" mountains aren’t much of a challenge for China due to their new Mig-29s. Also, "the technological advance represents a quantum leap forward for China’s nuclear forces and a fresh threat to U.S. forces and allies in East Asia", ("U.S.-China military ties expanding", http://originalsources.com/OS3-99HL/3-22-1999.3.shtml). In general, experts agree that China certainly does have the capabilities of taking over Taiwan.



Taiwan’s Recent History

Originally Taiwan was settled by people of Malay-Polynesian descent, who settled in the low-lying coastal plains. They were the ancestors of the present-day aborigine groups. Taiwan's modern history goes back about 400 years, to the day when the first Western ship passed by the island, and Jan Huygen van Linschoten, a Dutch navigator on a Portuguese ship, exclaimed "Ilha Formosa", (Beautiful Island). In this brief history of Taiwan, what will be taken into consideration is the period from the mid 1900s to the present day.

In 1945, at the end of World War II, Japan surrendered to its allies. General Chen-Yi was appointed by China's Chiang Kai-shek to take over Taiwan. Taiwan's population was 6 million at the time. In 1947, the Chinese rule brought widespread corruption to the government, chaos to society, and caused a run-away inflation in the economy. On the 28th of February, a generalized uprising developed. Chiang Kai-shek responded by sending troops from China and carrying out merciless suppression. Thousands of Taiwanese were massacred, most of which were innocent. After being defeated by communists in China in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan with more than a million followers. He was to rule Taiwan with iron fists in the name of "Free China" for the decades to come. His rule started in 1949 and continued for a couple of decades. He ruled the island under a "State of Emergency" that restricted most citizens to as few human rights as those exercises on the mainland. The Koumintang, Chiang’s party, ruled the island nation. With Chiang came ethnic Chinese who, today, only form about 20% of the population while the rest are native Taiwanese. Though both are Chinese peoples and read the same language, they have different cultures, appearances, and spoken languages, (i.e., accents).

The 10th of December in 1979 was a major moment in Taiwan's history. It was hardly noticed internationally when it took place. But it has been recognized as an important turning point in Taiwan’s recent history since then. It started out as the first major human rights day celebration in Taiwan. The authorities had never allowed any public expression of discontent up until that time. But a slight thaw had set in during the summer of 1979. In the run of events in that summer, two opposition magazines were established. One of which was the Formosa Magazine, which was headed by veteran opposition Legislative Yuan-member Huang Hsin-chieh. The other magazine was The Eighties, headed by the up and coming opposition leader K'ang Ning-hsiang. The "human rights day celebration" ended in chaos after the police forces surrounded the peace-seeking crowd and started using teargas, and pro-government political activists excited violence. More than 90 civilians and 40 policemen were injured.

The 17th of April 1995 was the 100th anniversary of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, in which China transferred its sovereignty over Taiwan forever. The Treaty was signed in April 1895, at the end of the Sino-Japanese War in 1894, in which the modernized Japanese royal army defeated the old-fashioned Chinese Ching dynasty army. For the people in Taiwan, the Shimonoseki Treaty is a significant event, for it marks a major turning point in Taiwan's evolution towards an independent nation state. In fact, a group of leading Taiwanese, aided by rebellious Ching dynasty officials, declared the formation of the Taiwan Republic, Asia's first independent republic, shortly after the 1895 Treaty.

However, the Taiwan Republic was short-lived. Japanese royal troops overthrew the movement within several months. This ushered in half century of Japanese rule, which only ended at the end of World War II. During this period, Taiwan was an integral part of the Japanese Empire. At the time of the Shimonoseki Treaty, China's claim on Taiwan was slight at best. Only a few years earlier, in 1887, the Ching dynasty -- fearing Japanese expansion towards the south – had declared the island a province of the Manchu Empire. Before that time, Taiwan had been a loose lying area, inhabited by aborigines, pirates and some traders, and had not been formally instituted in any political entity since the period of Dutch rule, (which was from 1624 to1662).



Taiwan and China’s Strait’s Agreement

Taiwan and China have begun negotiations for an unprecedented trip to the territory by the mainland's top envoy, which handles cross-strait ties. Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation, or SEF, has described the visit by Mr. Wang Dao-han as the year's most important event of the cross-strait exchanges. Mr. Wang is the chairman of China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait. He had been invited to Taipei in April, but Beijing has rejected the proposed date. Taiwan has expressed hope for an exchange of views that would lead to a smooth path for future talks -and wants Mr. Wang's trip to be constructive.



US-China Policy

Few relationships touch as many interests important to Americans as their relationship with China. What China's leaders do, what its people achieve, the kind of nation it becomes, will be vital to the U.S. and its friends and allies in the years ahead.

In terms of the US’s most basic interest, security for our people, China is a prominent factor. North Korea is probably the hottest potential flash point on the United States’ map of the world. The U.S. relies on China, through the Four-Party Talks and in more informal ways, to exert positive influence on their neighbors the North Koreans. They can also help keep South Asia from taking further bad steps down the nuclear road after last year's dangerous tests. But, the U.S. is mindful of the Chinese drive to modernize its military, including its strategic nuclear forces and its ballistic missiles.

The U.S. has no illusions about and are not naïve concerning China. There clearly have been problem cases outside the export licensing system. China seeks to acquire sensitive information and technology for military uses by many means, some legal, and some not. That is why the U.S. has established strong measures to protect classified information and prevent acquisition of sensitive technology.

China's security interests and sovereignty claims, as it defines them in the South China Sea, also impact on the peace and stability of Asia. The cross-straits experience made the US think hard about the kind of relationship it needs with China, the kind of dialogue it would like to see across the Taiwan Strait, and the kind of security framework the Chinese will fit into in the next century. The US will continue to pursue our engagement strategy. The US must continue to speak frankly about its disagreements with China, but must also continue to expand cooperation in areas where it agrees. It will need to work together with China in order to accomplish its goals.

Bibliography

- "The "Kaohsiung Incident" of 1979". Taiwan's 400 years of history. December 18th 1998.

http://www.taiwandc.org/hst-1979.htm
- Illustrated Taiwan Timeline. Taiwan's 400 years of history. March 10th 1998.

http://taiwanresources.com/info/history/chrono.htm
"100 years since Treaty of Shimonoseki". Taiwan's 400 years of history. June 2nd 1996.

http://www.taiwandc.org/hst-1895.htm
Wang, Kristie. "Chronology of recent events in U.S.-Taiwan and U.S.-China Relations". Center for Taiwan International Relations. Taiwan's 400 years of history.

http://www.taiwandc.org/hst-9596.htm
"Taiwan, China begin negotiations for envoy's trip". Channel News Asia. May 23rd 1999.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/articles/1999/3/19/news630.htm

- "Iraq, Kosovo, China, and Russia". March 15, 1999.

http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/1999/990315_pickering.html

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Prepared By:

Mohammed Adel Fakhral-Deen, 9A, MUN Prep.